The people of Vanuatu, an archipelago in the South Pacific, have long relied on their intimate knowledge of nature to forecast extreme weather. Their traditional methods, passed down through generations, involve observing patterns in animals and plants to predict storms. This practice has been particularly crucial in a region prone to severe cyclones and other weather extremes. However, with the changing climate impacting weather patterns and species behavior, these traditional indicators are facing new challenges.
The Traditional Wisdom of the Ni-Vanuatu
For centuries, the ni-Vanuatu people have depended on natural cues to anticipate and prepare for severe weather. Their traditional knowledge encompasses a deep understanding of the natural world, including the behavior of various animals and plants. Before the arrival of modern meteorological tools, this knowledge was essential for survival, enabling communities to safeguard their homes, food supplies, and lives.
Understanding Traditional Indicators
We list some common traditional indicators below:
Flowering Plants: Plants often serve as early indicators of weather changes. In Vanuatu, the flowering of certain plants is closely monitored. For example, an unusual flowering pattern or a change in the blooming season can signal upcoming weather events.
Bees: The behavior of bees is another critical indicator. Bees are known for their sensitivity to changes in the environment. If bees start behaving erratically or changing their nesting patterns, it can indicate a shift in weather conditions.
Turtles: Marine species like turtles are also observed for signs of impending weather. Changes in their nesting behavior or migration patterns can provide valuable clues about upcoming storms.
Bats: The activity of bats is closely watched as well. An increase in bat activity, particularly at night, can be a sign of changing weather patterns. Bats are known to be sensitive to changes in humidity and temperature, which can precede severe weather events.
Case Study: Cyclone Harold
In early April 2020, Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Harold approached the Vanuatu islands. The ni-Vanuatu people, using their traditional knowledge, had already started preparing for the storm. They secured their homes, stored food, and took other precautions based on the natural indicators they had observed.
One local resident recounted that if the weather appeared calm in the middle of a cyclone, it often meant that the winds would return with even more force. This knowledge helped them anticipate the storm’s intensity and prepare accordingly.
Revitalizing Traditional Knowledge: The VanKIRAP Project
Recognizing the value of traditional knowledge, the VanKIRAP project was initiated to document and preserve these ancient meteorological indicators. Led by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD), the project aims to create a comprehensive record of traditional weather forecasting methods.
The VanKIRAP Booklet
The project developed a national indicator booklet that catalogs a wide range of traditional meteorological indicators. This booklet is a crucial resource for preserving knowledge that has been passed down orally. It includes detailed descriptions of various indicators and their significance in weather prediction.
The Role of the ClimateWatch App
To complement the booklet, the ClimateWatch mobile app was created. This innovative tool allows users to record observations of traditional indicator species and track their behavior over time. The app is designed to work alongside the booklet, providing a modern means of documenting and analyzing traditional knowledge.
Sunny Seuseu, the VanKIRAP project manager, emphasizes the importance of this app. It represents the first citizen science mobile app in the Pacific Islands region focused on extreme weather forecasting using traditional knowledge. The app allows users to document species, capture images, and provide data that can be analyzed to assess the reliability of traditional indicators.
Challenges and Adaptations
As climate change affects weather patterns and species behaviors, the reliability of traditional indicators is being tested. Glenda Pakoa, a principal scientific officer at VMGD, notes that climate change is disrupting the natural patterns that traditional indicators rely on.
Changes in Indicator Species
Here are some indicator species:
Yellow Oriental Paper Wasps: Traditionally, the nesting height of the yellow oriental paper wasp (Polistes olivaceus) has been used to predict cyclones. If wasps nest lower than usual, it is seen as a sign of impending storms. However, changing temperatures and weather patterns may affect the wasps’ nesting behavior, potentially reducing the accuracy of this indicator.
Pacific Emerald Dove: The behavior of the Pacific emerald dove (Chalcophaps longirostris sandwichensis) is another important indicator. Traditionally, this bird’s nesting behavior signaled the approach of cyclones. Changes in rainfall and temperature could disrupt the bird’s reproductive cycles, affecting its reliability as an indicator.
Flying Foxes: The flying fox (Pteropus sp.) is observed for changes in flight patterns and activity levels. Increased activity or changes in behavior have been linked to weather changes. However, extreme heat and changes in food availability could impact the abundance and behavior of flying foxes.
Fruit Trees: The fruiting patterns of trees such as mango, breadfruit, and papaya have also been used to predict weather patterns. Shifts in fruiting seasons due to climate change may impact their effectiveness as indicators.
Ongoing Research and Future Directions
Researchers are actively studying how climate change affects traditional indicators and are working to adapt these methods to current conditions. The VanKIRAP project and the ClimateWatch app are integral to this effort, providing tools for both documenting and analyzing traditional knowledge.
Moirah Matou, a project manager at VMGD, highlights the need for long-term data to verify the reliability of traditional indicators. The app and booklet are crucial in gathering this data, which will help researchers understand how climate change is influencing traditional knowledge.
Data Collection and Analysis
The ClimateWatch app allows users to record data on traditional indicator species, including their location, behavior, and other relevant observations. This data is collected and analyzed by VMGD and its partners to assess changes in species behavior and the accuracy of traditional indicators.
Pakoa notes that while traditional indicators may still be reliable for short-term weather predictions, their accuracy for long-term forecasts is more uncertain. For instance, indicators such as lower nesting heights of hornets may still be useful for predicting immediate weather changes, while fruiting patterns may be less reliable for predicting long-term weather events.
Community Engagement and Education
The VanKIRAP project is not only a scientific endeavor but also a community-focused initiative. Engaging with local communities and preserving traditional knowledge are key aspects of the project.
Extending Outreach
Currently, the ClimateWatch app focuses on urban areas, including the capital, Port Vila. However, the project plans to extend its outreach to rural and remote communities across Vanuatu. This includes setting up community climate centers and working with local climate champions to collect traditional knowledge from various provinces and villages.
Seuseu explains that more than 100 people have used the app since its launch in 2023. The project aims to increase this number and ensure that remote communities can also contribute data and benefit from the app’s insights.
Educational Initiatives
In addition to its fieldwork, the VanKIRAP project includes educational components aimed at schools. The project has developed lesson plans to teach primary and secondary students about traditional weather forecasting methods. This helps ensure that the knowledge is passed on to future generations and remains relevant in the face of climate change.
The Future of Traditional Knowledge
As climate change continues to impact weather patterns and species behavior, the future of traditional knowledge depends on ongoing research and adaptation. The VanKIRAP project and the ClimateWatch app represent important steps in bridging the gap between traditional practices and modern scientific understanding.
Seuseu believes that while traditional knowledge may face challenges, it remains highly relevant. By combining traditional methods with modern technology, communities can better prepare for extreme weather events and adapt to changing conditions.
In summary, the ni-Vanuatu people’s traditional methods for predicting storms are a testament to their deep connection with nature. However, the changing climate poses significant challenges to the accuracy of these indicators. The VanKIRAP project and the ClimateWatch app are crucial in preserving and adapting this knowledge, ensuring that it continues to provide valuable insights in an increasingly uncertain world. As we move forward, integrating traditional wisdom with scientific research will be key to building resilience and preparing for the future.
