Climate change is reshaping the Amazon rainforest, increasing its susceptibility to fires by nearly 30 times, according to the 2023-2024 State of Wildfires report. This significant shift underscores the growing impact of global warming
on one of the world’s most vital ecosystems.
Climate Change and the Western Amazon
The study highlights that between March 2023 and February 2024, the western Amazon—spanning parts of Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia—has become dramatically more fire-prone. Factors such as rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and drier air have combined to create conditions that drastically amplify the risk of wildfires. In this period, the region’s vulnerability to fires has surged to 20 to 28.5 times higher than it would be without climate change.
By contrast, the effect of climate change on Canada’s boreal forests, which also faced significant fires in 2023, is approximately threefold. The disparity in these figures illustrates the uniquely severe impact of climate change on the Amazon compared to other regions.
Findings from the Study
Lead author Matthew Jones emphasized the alarming extent of this increase in fire risk. “The numbers are startling,” he told Mongabay. “We’ve observed substantial drying across the Amazon Basin.” While climate change has certainly exacerbated the situation, Jones noted that human activities, such as criminal arson for land clearing and the traditional use of fire, are the primary triggers for these blazes.
Despite recent efforts to curb deforestation, including a notable 22% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration began in January 2023, the region continues to face severe wildfire threats. The El Niño-driven drought of 2023 was particularly harsh, with river levels dropping to their lowest in over a century.
Surge in Wildfires
The report reveals a staggering 152% increase in fire outbreaks within Brazil’s old-growth forests in 2023. Amazonas state, known for its extensive preserved forests, recorded a record 3,181 fires in October alone. Peru and Bolivia also reported unprecedented forest fire levels.
Looking Ahead
Matthew Jones warns that without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the fire risk in the Amazon will keep rising. As temperatures continue to climb and rainfall patterns shift, the threat of fires will escalate. However, there is hope: “If we can fully implement the Paris Agreement commitments, we might stabilize the situation and keep fire risk at current levels,” Jones adds.
Conclusion
The dramatic increase in fire risk in the western Amazon due to climate change highlights the urgent need for global action on climate and environmental policies. Addressing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting conservation efforts are crucial to protecting this vital ecosystem from further devastation.
